In just over two weeks we will know the winner of the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest. We have already looked at the potential qualifiers from the first semi-final here and now it's time to review the chances of the countries competing in the second semi-final. Once again, to do this ranking we look at two sources; the latest bookmaker odds on qualification, and the prediction poll we ran on this website for a month, ending on April 20th.


To get the bookmakers' odds we checked the Oddschecker website and we looked at the best price for  each country qualifying. We converted that into a relative probability factor, removed the bookmakers margin and came up with a probability percentage for each song in the second semi-final.

On the left you can see the chart that rates each song's chance of qualifying, based on those odds.  Seven songs are pretty certain qualifiers; Sweden, Serbia, Norway, Turkey, Bosnia-Herz. and then slightly behind them, come Estonia and Ukraine  These include the two countries with a previous 100% qualification record; Bosnia and Ukraine. However the third country with that record, Georgia won't make the cut this year based on the odds. Portugal and Malta also look like unlikely qualifiers.

The other eight songs seem to be in the mix for the remaining three places although Netherlands and Bulgaria are marginal.


For four weeks, ending on April 20th, we asked visitors to the site to pick up to ten songs they believed would qualify. We received over 1,200 predictions and on the right you can see an adjusted table that takes those predictions and converts them into a probability factor.

As with the bookmakers, seven songs have pulled away from the pack, six are the same as bookmakers, but Slovenia displaces Estonia. Estonia is however one of five songs that are in strong contention for the remaining three places.

Georgia is again very poorly rated on the poll and Slovakia and Belarus are also doing considerably worse than than they are with bookmakers. However if visitors to this site are to be believed, Netherlands could be in for its first qualification since 2004 and Macedonia for the first since since 2007.

To summarise, it looks like six countries from the second semi-final look to be virtually guaranteed a spot in the Saturday night final; Serbia, Sweden, Norway, Bosnia, Turkey and Ukraine. Two others, Estonia and Slovenia are ahead of the following pack and then perm two from the remaining ten songs to get the remaining two finalists.