just over two weeks we will know the winner of the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest.
We have already looked at the potential qualifiers from the first semi-final
here and now it's time
to review the chances of the countries competing in the second semi-final.
Once again, to do this ranking we look
at two sources; the latest bookmaker odds on qualification, and the prediction
poll we ran on this website for a month, ending on April 20th.
To get the bookmakers'
odds we checked the
Oddschecker website and we looked at the
best price for each country qualifying. We converted that into a relative probability factor, removed the bookmakers
margin and came up with a probability percentage for each song in the
left you can see the chart that rates each song's chance of qualifying,
based on those odds. Seven songs are pretty certain
qualifiers; Sweden, Serbia, Norway, Turkey, Bosnia-Herz. and then
slightly behind them, come Estonia and Ukraine These include the two countries with a previous 100%
qualification record; Bosnia and Ukraine. However the third country with
that record, Georgia won't make the cut this year based on the odds.
Portugal and Malta also look like unlikely qualifiers.
eight songs seem to be in the mix for the remaining three places
although Netherlands and Bulgaria are marginal.
For four weeks, ending on
April 20th, we asked visitors to the site to pick up to ten songs they believed would qualify. We received over
1,200 predictions and on the right you
can see an adjusted table that takes those predictions and converts them
into a probability factor.
the bookmakers, seven songs have pulled away from the pack, six are the
same as bookmakers, but Slovenia displaces Estonia. Estonia is however
one of five songs that are in strong contention for the remaining three
is again very poorly rated on the poll and Slovakia and Belarus are also
doing considerably worse than than they are with bookmakers. However if
visitors to this site are to be believed, Netherlands could be in for
its first qualification since 2004 and Macedonia for the first since
summarise, it looks like six countries from the second semi-final
look to be virtually guaranteed a spot in the Saturday night final;
Serbia, Sweden, Norway, Bosnia, Turkey and Ukraine. Two
others, Estonia and Slovenia are ahead of the following pack and then
perm two from the remaining ten songs to get the remaining two