a month to go to the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest, we look at the ranking of the
songs competing in the first semi-final on May 22nd. To do this ranking we look
at two sources; the latest bookmaker odds on qualification, and the prediction
poll we ran on this website for a month, end on April 20th.
To check out the bookmakers'
odds we went to the
Oddschecker website and looked at the
best price (longest odds) for each country qualifying. We then
turned that into a relative probability factor, removed the bookmakers
margin and came up with a probability percentage for each song in the
left you can see a chart that rates each song's chance of qualifying
based on the bookmakers' odds. Five songs are pretty certain
qualifiers; Denmark, Russia, Iceland, Romania and Greece. Interestingly
these include the three countries with a previous 100% record; Russia,
Romania and Greece.
behind these five come Ireland and Cyprus, but then things get a lot
tighter with a lot of songs in contention for the last three spots. As
of now, Moldova, Albania and Israel are ahead, with Switzerland, Hungary
and Finland just missing out.
For four weeks, ending on
April 20th, we asked visitors to the site to pick up to ten songs from
each semi-final, that they believed would qualify. We received over
1,200 predictions ranging from all over the World and on the right you
can see an adjust table that takes those predictions and converts it
into a probability factor.
Interestingly, seven songs are quite a distance away from the pack and
these are the same seven songs that lead the way with the bookmakers.
Iceland (3rd with the bookies) leads the way. Denmark, the bookies
favourite, is fourth on the poll.
also very little difference in the songs in contention for the last
three places. Israel and Albania also squeeze into the Top 10, and only
Switzerland, rather than Moldova, is different from the bookmakers Top
10 list. San Marino hold last place with both bookmakers and on the
summarise, it looks like seven countries from the first semi-final
already have one foot in the door for the Saturday night final. Two
others, Israel and Albania, have a slight advance, but Switzerland and
Moldova are right behind them. Is this how things will turn out in Baku?
IN a couple of weeks
we'll look at the second semi-final, and just before we go the
Azerbaijan, we'll check out who is in the frame to win in Baku.