With a month to go to the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest, we look at the ranking of the songs competing in the first semi-final on May 22nd. To do this ranking we look at two sources; the latest bookmaker odds on qualification, and the prediction poll we ran on this website for a month, end on April 20th.

THE BOOKMAKERS

To check out the bookmakers' odds we went to the Oddschecker website and looked at the best price (longest odds) for  each country qualifying. We then turned that into a relative probability factor, removed the bookmakers margin and came up with a probability percentage for each song in the semi-final.

On the left you can see a chart that rates each song's chance of qualifying based on the bookmakers' odds.  Five songs are pretty certain qualifiers; Denmark, Russia, Iceland, Romania and Greece. Interestingly these include the three countries with a previous 100% record; Russia, Romania and Greece.

A little behind these five come Ireland and Cyprus, but then things get a lot tighter with a lot of songs in contention for the last three spots. As of now, Moldova, Albania and Israel are ahead, with Switzerland, Hungary and Finland just missing out.

THE POLL

For four weeks, ending on April 20th, we asked visitors to the site to pick up to ten songs from each semi-final, that they believed would qualify. We received over 1,200 predictions ranging from all over the World and on the right you can see an adjust table that takes those predictions and converts it into a probability factor.

Interestingly, seven songs are quite a distance away from the pack and these are the same seven songs that lead the way with the bookmakers. Iceland (3rd with the bookies) leads the way. Denmark, the bookies favourite, is fourth on the poll.

There is also very little difference in the songs in contention for the last three places. Israel and Albania also squeeze into the Top 10, and only Switzerland, rather than Moldova, is different from the bookmakers Top 10 list. San Marino hold last place with both bookmakers and on the poll.

To summarise, it looks like seven countries from the first semi-final already have one foot in the door for the Saturday night final. Two others, Israel and Albania, have a slight advance, but Switzerland and Moldova are right behind them. Is this how things will turn out in Baku?

IN a couple of weeks we'll look at the second semi-final, and just before we go the Azerbaijan, we'll check out who is in the frame to win in Baku.